* EUUSD trades near 1.1870, having defended 1.18 on Thursday. * Dollar's bounce has stalled due to dismal US weekly jobless claims data. * Euro bulls now need a better-than-expected German and Eurozone PMIs. EUUSD’s bounce from 1.18 will likely gather pace if the preliminary German and Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI data for August blow past expectations on Friday, reinforcing hopes for faster economic recovery. The data due at 07:30 GMT is forecasted that German Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5 from July’s 51. In other words, the pace of expansion in the activity is expected to have picked up the pace in August. SImilarly, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to rise to 52.9 from 51.8. An above-forecast data would not only boost recovery hopes but also weaken the case for additional monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank. As such, one may expect the EUR to rally on better-than-expected PMI numbers. The pair is currently trading near 1.1870, having defended the psychological support of 1.18 on Friday. The US dollar picked up a bid on Wednesday, pushing EUUSD lower toward 1.18 after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting dismissed yield curve control as a measure of keeping borrowing costs lower. Dollar’s rebound, however, ran out of steam on Thursday after the US labor department data showed the number of individuals filing new unemployment insurance claims unexpectedly rose back above 1 million last week. That said, EUUSD’s daily chart continues to lean bearish. Hence, the pair will likely revisit Thursday’s low of 1.18 if the German and Eurozone data prints below estimates. Technical levels EUUSD Overview Today last price 1.1872 Today Daily Change 0.0012 Today Daily Change % 0.10 Today daily open 1.186 Trends Daily SMA20 1.1803 Daily SMA50 1.1512 Daily SMA100 1.1235 Daily SMA200 1.1141 Levels Previous Daily High 1.1869 Previous Daily Low 1.1802 Previous Weekly High 1.1864 Previous Weekly Low 1.1711 Previous Monthly High 1.1909 Previous Monthly Low 1.1185 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1843 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1828 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1819 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1777 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1752 * GBP/USD back on the bid as the US dollar failed to hold in the 93 areas. * Brexit concerns could come back into play if there are no positive progress reports from this week's talks. GBP USD is currently trading 1.3190 and travelling between a low of 1.3064 and a high of 1.3201. In recent trade, the Bulls picked up the baton with the price jumping sharply to test the 1.32 area. There is widespread dollar weakness following yesterday's broad recovery against G10 FX with the DXY posting its largest single-day gain since June. At the time of writing the DXY is trading at 92.83, down 0.18% from a high of 93.24 to a low of 92.75. The US dollar started to show signs of a correction in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, an event that served to underpin USD strength throughout the following sessions before posting a fresh corrective high during the London and New York crossover. The sell-off in USTs was short-lived, however, and the dollar finds itself back under pressure as the market continues to expect easing steps in its September meeting. Global equities were a sea of red following the FOMC Minutes that continued to stress significant economic uncertainty and downside risks due to COVID-19. Meanwhile, UK July inflation surprised significantly to the upside earlier in the week, with headline inflation jumping to 1.0% YoY while Core Inflation rose by its strongest since July 2019 to 1.8% YoY. Will there be any Brexit progress reports? For the remainder of the week, traders will be looking to Retail Sales, PMIs and will also be on the lookout for Brexit-update headlines to see if any progress has been made in this week's talks. The concerns are that the UK could be facing a scenario of a return to WTO rules on trade with Europe if progress is not made in Autumn, in time for a deal to be ratified before the end of the year. In the case that the UK finds its self without a deal, WTO terms would potentially increase the duration and impact of the recession, leaving the pound vulnerable to the circumstances which could result in a negative Bank rate. For tomorrow's data, UK activity likely rose gradually through August as most countries continued to ease up COVID restrictions (local shutdowns excepted), analysts at TD Securities said. We see upside risks and expect small gains across most key PMI measures, indicating recovery, but still at a relatively subdued pace. GBP/USD levels Overview Today last price 1.3191 Today Daily Change 0.0092 Today Daily Change % 0.70 Today daily open 1.3099 Trends Daily SMA20 1.3037 Daily SMA50 1.273 Daily SMA100 1.2566 Daily SMA200 1.2719 Levels Previous Daily High 1.3267 Previous Daily Low 1.3094 Previous Weekly High 1.3143 Previous Weekly Low 1.3006
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